IMF revises Spanish growth forecasts slightly upward

The International Monetary Fund onWednesday slightly improved its growth forecasts for Spain for this year and the next, but insisted the recovery of the Spanish economy would continue to lag behind those of the rest of the major industrialized countries. In the fall edition of itsWorld Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted the Spanish economy would contract by 0.3 percent, compared with an earlier estimate of a fall of 0.4 percent. For next year, it increased its forecast for GDP growth to 0.7percent from 0.6 percent. The revised figures are still well above the government’s estimate of GDP growth of 1.3 percent in 2011. The agency sharply raised its estimate for growth in the euro zone for this year to 1.7 percent from 1.0 percent and for next year to 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent. The IMF sees world output rising 4.8 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2011.
“The world economic recovery is proceeding,” the IMF’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, told a news conference in Washington. “But it is an unbalanced recovery.”
The IMF said that growth in Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal is expected to be much lower than the rest of the euro zone because of the constraints imposed by the need to get their financial houses back in order, and by a lack of competitiveness.
Portugal and Spain have embarked on painful austerity drives to bring their public deficits back within the 3-percent ceiling imposed by the European Union. In the case of Spain, the shortfall last year was 11.1 percent of GDP and 9.3 percent in Ireland.
The IMF predicted that the Portuguese economy would grow 1.1 percent this year before
stagnating the following year. The fallout from housing bubbles that have burst in both Spain and Ireland is also expected to put a drag on the recovery in those two countries. The IMF noted that construction’s share of total value added in Spain stood at 12 percent at the height of the housing boom, compared with an average for the euro area of only 7 percent. “The housing bust thus brought a severe contraction in construction and employment,” said the IMF, which in the case of Spain “is not showing any signs of abating from very high levels.” At over 20 percent, the jobless
rate in Spain is the highest in the European Union, where the average is under 10 percent. “Reallocation of labor away from construction is likely to take considerable
time, which will keep unemployment rates stubbornly high,” the IMF report said.
The IMF expects Spain’s jobless rate to rise from 18 percent last year to 19.9 percent this year, easing slightly to 19.3 percent in 2011.