Export Activity Indicator climbs to highest value since first quarter of 2007

The Synthetic Index of Export Activity (Spanish acronym: ISAE) stands at +25.9 points in the first quarter of the year, over seven points higher than in the previous quarter (+18.2 points). This is the highest value in this regard since the first quarter of 2007 (28.0). This increase was caused by a more optimistic outlook from export companies in the three areas measured by the survey: the order backlog and the three- and twelve-month outlooks.

Of the three components of the ISAE, the current balance indicator rose by eight points on the figure posted in the fourth quarter of last year (from 11.7 to 19.7 points). Furthermore, the indicator representing the outlook at three months rose by 8.1 points (from 21.1 to 29.2 points). In turn, the indicator representing the outlook at 12 months rose by 5.7 points (from 38.5 to 44.2 points).

The trend in foreign demand continues to be the factor that most of those surveyed consider to be having the greatest positive impact on export activity (48.6%). In contrast, international price competition is the factor cited by the largest number of those surveyed as having a negative impact (53.5%).

Export prices and profit margins are another two factors analysed this quarter and that affect export activity. In both cases, the perception that they have remained stable continues to grow, with an upward trend posted this quarter.

In the first quarter of the year, 94.6% of those surveyed consider that the hiring of personnel for activities related to export activity remained stable or increased. The same opinion was expressed by 94% when asked about the following quarter, and 93.7% believe this to be true for the coming 12 months. Furthermore, 93.5% of those surveyed state that the number of jobs dedicated to export activities has remained stable or increased in the first quarter of the year.

The net hiring balance indicator in the quarter for export activities stands at 10.7 points (2.3 in the previous survey), while this figure on the forecast at three months stands at 6 points (10.0 in the previous survey) and the figure on the forecast at 12 months stands at 12.2 points (unchanged since the previous survey).

For the majority of export destination regions, the current balance indicator has improved over the figure posted in the previous quarter, with the highest relating to North America (23.3). The only decreases were posted by those relating to Asia (10.3) and Oceania (4.8).

The balance indicator on the export outlook at three months improved significantly for North America (31.7) and Latin America (27.1) but worsened for the Eurozone (18.3), those European countries not forming part of the EU-28 (7.2) and Oceania (16.4).

In the long term, the countries that most Spanish export companies believe to be their main destinations are once again Germany (38.1%) and France (36.8%).